🍒 Card counting - Wikipedia

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Okay that roullete example should give you a good idea of what things like "long run" and "edge" and "short term" mean Just like roullette, or any of the other games where you play against the house the house simply has an unbeatable mechanical edge, due to the structure of the game. Aren't you still at a disadvantage in poker? What is hole carding? You may make 0 dollars in one very mildly lucky night. They in fact had a small edge over you on each of those 7 bets you made. This edge will vary from casino to casino, based on how deep they go into the show before shuffling. Hell, if enough people misread, or misunderstand this post, I may create a longer, more in depth, and complete version of this, and submit it as an article. Let's get the facts straight guys. The general rule is that for any game you play against the house, such as blackjack, roullette, craps, etc they make it impossible to gain an edge in the long run over the house, via setting up a game where they have an edge simply due to the mechanics of the game. Thankfully, the situation that you describe where people of EXACTLY the same skill level play the same game with the same people everyday rarely, if ever, occurs in a 'live' or 'casino' game. The only way to beat blackjack in the long-run is by card-counting a very meek slow living or to hole card dealers in pitch games. This is a fact. If you notice that you have seen a lot more low cards than high cards, that means the deck is saturated with an unnaturally high proportion of high cards compared to normal. You may lose , dollars in one unluckier-than-fck night. It was pretty luckky that that happened, but it did happen, and so you just made a nice amount of money, in an extroardinarily short amount of time. The severity of high-card-richness of the shoe is much greater when there are 10 more high cards than there should be in a shoe with 60 remaining cards than a shoe with remaining cards. Did you win the last 7 times you bet, in a row. I realize that skill makes poker profitable for a lot of people, but I disagree with the fact that you say players are not at a disadvantage in poker against the house. Say 10 people of the exact same ability play every day all day for a year so that luck is not relevant. In the instance of regular pros that play against each other they do so at home Doyle's house and avoid the rake. Instead they simply sit down for 20 or 30 minutes. It is one thing if there are 10 more high cards in the deck than normal, when there are till cards left in the shoe, and it is another thing when there are 10 more high cards than normal, but there are only 60 cards left in the shoe. The reason is this: If you play absolutely flawless basic strategy at blackjack, the house maintains a 1. Unless you cardcount. Sure every now and then you might have a hot day, and every now and then you might have a cold day, but in the long run, if there were only red tiles and black tiles, and no green tiles, and you kept picking red or black, you would neither gain nor lose any edge on the house, and they would neither gain nor lose any edge on you. If you had any trouble understanding any of it, feel free to send me a personal message. I do not doubt this one bit. In this case, everyone will be a loser because the house "scrapes a couple of chips off every pot you guys play. And then walk off to the strip club, after either having won or lost a bucks or maybe bucks, or maybe 0 bucks. And that is why I say that although your negative edge against the house will always be Your positive edge per hand if you do card count in addition to playing perfect basic strategy will vary from casino to casino. Its as simple as that. If you are card counting, you are keeping track of how many high cards you have seen, and how many low cards you have seen. Unfortunately, just as they have this mechanical edge against you in roullette, they have a mechanical edge against you in blackjack. This is because of the stuff I said above, about high card richness in relation to the amount of cards left in the shoe. Most of you guys who posted about how you thought you had an edge over the house in blackjack in that blackjack post that I read a few minutes ago took pride in you ability to play perfect basic strategy.

Asked by bfactor. That is because if you bust over 21, you lose, and they win even if they would have busted as blackjack odds of runs.

Some poker players are blackjack odds of runs than others. If there were no rake, in poker, you would merely have to be 0. Blackjack is a game that is played against the house. They are not theories. The important thing source remember is that if you card count, and play perfect basic strategy, you overcome the 1.

So yes, obviously the house is "beating you" at poker, since they are raking you, and they are taking blackjack odds of runs money from you where you have no risk of "beating them back. In blackjack, you can play as flawless a basic strategy as you want, but no matter what you do, how hard you try, you will always have a

That isn't the point. Well here's why:. They are facts. Now, you might wonder to yourself It isnt a very huge negative edge, only a couple percent per bet placed, but as long as that green tile is there, that negative edge is there, and that green tile is always there. For example, it is very plausible and possible to win 6 or 7 straight times in a row while playing roullette. And since you never win when your ball hits green and they always win when your ball hits green, thats the tiny edge they get over you. The point is that by using perfect basic strategy, you will be giving up a 1. They are not opinions. You may win , dollars in one luckier-than-fck night. For a brief period of time you will become very angry, because you will have a minor "world-comes-crashing-down sensation when you realize that a game which you thought you were legitimately winning at, and had as a reasonable source of income, is actually just a game you lucked out at, and won short-term in but will lose long-term in. You miss by 1. This fact makes it impossible to gain an edge over them even if you play perfect basic strategy. Here's why. If you don't already know all of this, two things will happen as a result of you reading this:. Those are the facts. In casinos that shuffle a bit earlier than most, meaning they dont go very deep into their shoe without shuffling, you cannot gain as big an edge as in casinos where they go very very deep into the shoe before shuffling. This means you gain a much larger edge per hand when max betting into a high-card-rich shoe that has very few cards left in it, than max betting into an equally high-card-rich show that has a whole bunch of cards left in it. Not all poker players are created equal. The problem is, these kinds of short, ut powerful streaks of good fortune stick out in one's memory a lot better than those equally short and powerful streaks of 7 straight lost wagers in a row. This is different from say, poker, where you are not playing against the house, but rather you are playing against other opponents, much like yourself, and the house is merely raking a bit on the side as you play. In the short run, it is impossible to predict precisely what will happen, but in the long run at this roullette game where the house has a small but permanent edge over your wagers, you will absoultely positively lose your money to them if you play for long enough, it is merely a matter of time. For most of the people who stroll in and plop down at a table, the house has a big edge, because they have their natural mechanical edge, plus they gain additional edge any time the novice makes a play that is not in accordance to basic strategy. Thats as close as you can get to beating them. The reason you can't cardcount online is that they shuffle after every hand. After the anger subsides, you will reread what I wrote, and realize that I actually did you a gigantic favor by both informing you that if you kept up what you were doing you would lose in the long run, and that if you instead did what I am going to tell you to do, you would win in the long run instead of lose. Just because in the long run say , bets placed would be considered "long-run" you will absolutely be guaranteed to lose money, due to that slight edge the house has over you kicking in slowly but surely over the course of such an enormous sample size of bets placed, does NOT mean that you can never experience a bit of short-term winning. In roullette if and only if there were no green tiles, but only an equal number of red and black tiles lining the edge of the wheel, then in the long run, the ball would land on red half the time, and black half the time. If there were no green squares, you could theoretically play for you whole life for 10 hours a day every day year after year, decade after decade, and expect to make no money after all these tens of thousands of hours of playing. However if you simply play basic strategy and dont also card count, there is no way to defeat the 1. Did you have an edge over the house when this occurred? Casinos are aware of holecarders and do look out for them, so many players get barred from many casinos, resulting in different identities and appearance changes, also not the easiest lifestyle, but virtually the only way you can stick it to the house in blackjack. This is a bad thing for the dealer, and a good thing for you. There is absolutely nothing you can do about this 1. We'll see what happens. They can be written out mathematically on a chalkboard and proven, and they can simply be proven by recording a months worth of blackjack play, and noticing that the edge attained per hand of a player who played against the house using perfect basic strategy, but no card counting, will be hovering somewhere between Okay I hope I saved you guys a lot of money, and a lot of your children's college funds and so forth with that little intro to math, and probability, and gambling, and blackjack discussion. Here is the problem however If you play absolutely literally flawless basic strategy, you still lose in the long run against the house in blackjack. This is their mechanical edge over you. Unfortunately, when you play roullette, there is a green tile. So its essentially the exact same thing as flipping a quarter, and wagering even money on the flip of the coin. In poker the house does not try to beat you at the game since it would take too much effort to actually beat you in a skill game where they have no mechanical edge , but they instead just scrape a couple chips off ever pot you guys play instead. Make 20 or 30 bets. In the table games however, they are playing you, and they must have a long-term edge over you otherwise their casino would simply go out of business after a few months of playing with a negative edge against all the casino clients. The deeper they go relative to the amount of cards the shoe started with prior to shuffling, the larger your card counting edge is, because you can take notice of ever increasing positive counts that may occurr near the end of an unshuffled shoe. Instead of starting off by explaining why it is that the house has a natural mechanical edge over you in the game of blackjack, let me first give you an example of how the house has a "mechanical" edge over you in the game of roullette, so that you understand what I mean by this natural edge In roullette there are an equal number of black squares, and red squares to choose from. The way it works is that, the more high cards there are in the deck compared to how many there should be in the deck, the better it is for you. In the game of blackjack, the house has a mechanical and permanent edge over you. So if someone has a hundred thousand bucks in their pockets, they probly wont stick around for the several weeks it would take, playing all day every day, to lose that , via the house edge playing at low stakes roullette. If you place a 1 dollar bet that the coin comes up tails, and your buddy placed a 1 dollar bet that it would come up heads, and you tried this several hundred million times, assuming you were both immortal, and had no access to sorority chicks, and so on, then in the super duper long run, you would both expect to have 1 dollar give or take a few bucks at the end of the match. Thus the best you can do online is play perfectly flawless basic strategy, and fork over a 1.